Futures Cheaper With US Tsys, Tokyo CPI Slightly Lower Than Expected

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are weaker, closing -20 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys moved higher ahead of the keenly anticipated address by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackon Hole Summit.

• Last year Powell’s speech was surprisingly brief and emphasised the Fed's determination to beat down inflation. There were no large moves in tsys. The inflation outlook will be the key ingredient again tonight with most commentaries suggesting he will message that progress is significant, but the war is not yet won.
• Bloomberg reports that the yen has eclipsed bond market liquidity as a potential catalyst for a further adjustment to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Despite the BOJ explicitly citing debt-market issues as the reason for changes to yield-curve control, bond liquidity has been broadly stable since the most recent policy tweak on July 28. Conversely, the yen has weakened more than any other major currency in the past six months and traded at levels that saw Japan step into the market last year. (See link)
• Tokyo CPI for August printed 2.9% y/y for headline versus expectations of 3.0% and 3.2% prior. Core ex fresh food came in at 2.8% y/y versus 2.9% projected and 3.0% prior. The core measure, which also strips out energy, printed in line with expectations and the prior at 4.0% y/y. At the margin, the data should be supportive for the market. July PPI Services is out shortly.