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JGBS: Futures Higher Overnight Despite A Heavy Session For US Tsys

JGBS
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed higher, +8 compared to settlement levels, despite a heavy session for US tsys on Tuesday.

  • The seemingly dovish implications of Friday's weak retail sales report faded, with Fed Gov Waller late Monday expressing less optimism than usual over the prospect of near-term rate cuts.
  • US data was mixed, with Empire State manufacturing beating and NAHB sentiment missing.
  • Cash US tsys bear-steepened after Monday's holiday: the 2-Yr yield up 4bps at 4.30%, 5-Yr up 7bps at 4.40%, 10-Yr up 7bps at 4.55%, and 30-Yr up 7bps at 4.77%.
  • Treasury supply resumes on Wednesday with $16B 20Y Bond auction, while we also get January housing starts/permits data and the January FOMC meeting minutes (followed by an appearance by Fed VC Jefferson).
  • “I probably will tell you that on April 2, but it’ll be in the neighbourhood of 25%,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about his plan for auto tariffs.” (ICYMI from Trump's earlier press conference)
  • Today, the local calendar will see Trade Balance, Core machine Orders and Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs. Note as well we hear from BoJ board member Takata speaking in Miyagi.
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed higher, +8 compared to settlement levels, despite a heavy session for US tsys on Tuesday.

  • The seemingly dovish implications of Friday's weak retail sales report faded, with Fed Gov Waller late Monday expressing less optimism than usual over the prospect of near-term rate cuts.
  • US data was mixed, with Empire State manufacturing beating and NAHB sentiment missing.
  • Cash US tsys bear-steepened after Monday's holiday: the 2-Yr yield up 4bps at 4.30%, 5-Yr up 7bps at 4.40%, 10-Yr up 7bps at 4.55%, and 30-Yr up 7bps at 4.77%.
  • Treasury supply resumes on Wednesday with $16B 20Y Bond auction, while we also get January housing starts/permits data and the January FOMC meeting minutes (followed by an appearance by Fed VC Jefferson).
  • “I probably will tell you that on April 2, but it’ll be in the neighbourhood of 25%,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about his plan for auto tariffs.” (ICYMI from Trump's earlier press conference)
  • Today, the local calendar will see Trade Balance, Core machine Orders and Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs. Note as well we hear from BoJ board member Takata speaking in Miyagi.