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Futures Pushing Back Towards Overnight Highs After Lunch

JGBS

JGB futures move back towards Tokyo morning bests, +33 compared to settlement levels, but remain below the overnight high of 148.16. At 148.07, JBM3 sits comfortably above the range of 147.40-147.92, which it has traded in since early April. Moreover, the recent move above the 20-day EMA at 147.65 now draws attention towards the Mar 22 high of 149.53, according to MNI's technical analyst.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined comments from BoJ Governor Ueda re: the government’s debt servicing costs.
  • Cash JGBs are 0.1 cheaper to 3.7bp richer across the curve with the 1-year zone the weakest and the 20-30-year zone the strongest. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.9bp richer at 0.460%.
  • A lack of enticing value and uncertainty re: BoJ monetary policy outlook appears to have weighed on today’s 2-year auction with the cover ratio slipping to its lowest level since August’s auction.
  • Swaps twist flattening in the morning session gives way to a curve flattening in the afternoon session. Swap spreads are mixed out to the 10-year zone with spreads wider beyond.
  • Looking ahead, the local calendar is light until Friday’s release of Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production data, ahead of the BoJ Policy Decision on the same day.
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