Free Trial

Futures Rally On U.S. Data, Recent Highs Intact

STIR

The softer-than-expected U.S. retail sales data provides a catalyst after a relatively limited morning session for SONIA futures.

  • Contracts last trade +0.25 to +5.0, at/a little below U.S. data-driven session highs.
  • Zooming out, recent range highs remain intact across the strip.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~43bp of cuts through ’24 vs. ~40bp earlier today.
  • Brightmine wage data will cross just after midnight, but it will be the latest round of monthly CPI data that generates the largest market reaction at Wednesday’s open.
  • The MNI markets team thinks that there are two-way risks to the key services CPI print, but downside risks outweigh upside risks, in our view.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.
  • Our preview of Thursday’s BoE decision will be released in the coming hours.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.197-0.3
Aug-245.093-10.7
Sep-245.007-19.3
Nov-244.873-32.7
Dec-244.770-43.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.