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Free AccessFutures Richer But Off Post-Retail Sales Highs, Q4 CPI Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +6.5) sit stronger but below session highs sparked by the release of weaker-than-expected December Retail Sales data. The move away from the session’s best levels likely reflected the fact that at least a part of December’s weakness was related to shifting spending patterns between December and November.
- Notably, afternoon weakness in ACGBs comes despite an extension of yesterday’s US tsys rally in today’s Asia-Pac session. Cash US tsys are currently dealing flat to 3bps richer, with a flattening bias.
- Cash ACGBs are 3-6bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp wider at +10bps.
- Swap rates are 1-5bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip is dealing mixed, with pricing -1 to +2.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. A cumulative 44bps of easing is priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Q4 CPI print. This will be a crucial input into deliberations at next week's RBA meeting. Bloomberg consensus is expecting headline CPI to print +0.8% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.4% prior. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to show +0.9% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.2% prior.
- Tomorrow, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of 3.75% 21 May 2034 bond.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.