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Futures Through Initial Resistance But Off Highs, Next Week's BoE Speakers Now Eyed

GILTS

Gilt futures printed above 98.00 on a couple of occasions after the U.S. NFP release, but have faded from highs alongside Tsys, last +55 at 97.89.

  • Initial resistance at Wednesday’s high (97.78) has been broken, with bulls now eying the June 28 high (98.24).
  • A break of the latter would add further weight to the recent bullish move.
  • Cash gilt yields are 4-6bp lower.
  • SONIA futures 1.0-6.5 firmer, mostly off session highs. BoE-dated OIS shows ~15.5bp of cuts for August and ~47bp of cuts through year end.
  • Next week sees focus turn to the initial rounds of post-election BoE communique, with the hawkish wing of the MPC (Pill, Mann & Haskel) set to appear.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.045-15.5
Sep-244.972-22.8
Nov-244.827-37.3
Dec-244.731-46.9
Feb-254.598-60.2
Mar-254.510-69.0
May-254.389-81.1
Jun-254.304-89.6
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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