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FX Market Inflows Reached $5.2bn In January, Carnival Next Week

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real has opened on a firmer footing this morning, after coming under some pressure yesterday along with other regional FX on the back of a robust US dollar. For now, USDBRL continues to trade below the key resistance at 5.0017, the Jan 23 high. Worth noting that the upcoming carnival holiday may impact local trading conditions given the market won’t resume operations until Wednesday afternoon, after the release of key US CPI data.
  • Meanwhile, Itau note that the FX market registered a net inflow of $5.2 bn in January, with an inflow of $4.7 billion on the trade front and $510mn due to financial flows. They note that January’s result was better than in recent years, mainly due to the more robust trade-linked inflows. Looking ahead, they expect FX flows to repeat the positive trend this year, although the magnitude may be slightly less than in 2023.
  • Data released earlier showed that IBGE services volume rose by 0.3% m/m (sa) in December. Though this was below the +0.8% consensus, it followed an upwardly-revised +0.9% m/m gain the month before. In annual terms, services volume fell by 2.0% y/y, vs. +0.4% prior. Also earlier, weekly FIPE CPI rose by 0.43%, vs. +0.34% prior. No further domestic data releases scheduled today, with attention turning to December economic activity data next week.

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