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G10 FX Little Changed Ahead of Busy Central Bank Week

FOREX
  • Major currencies remain close to unchanged for Friday, as markets digest the end of the Lunar New Year holiday in China and contemplate the Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy decision next week.
  • The greenback spent the day trading in moderately firmer territory with a noted uptick approaching the WMR fix for value-date month end. However, the USD gradually faded approaching the close, leaving the USD index very close to last Friday’s close but still within close proximity to most recent trend lows.
  • G10 majors were mixed with the Euro moderately lower and the JPY slightly firmer on the session. For now, EUR/USD remains in a broader uptrend, with Thursday's 1.0929 print highlighting the upside bias. Key short-term support levels remain intact and note that moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. The next objective is 1.0954, the Apr 11, 2022 high.
  • Focus clearly on the FOMC next week where the Fed are expected to downshift its rate hike pace in February for the second consecutive meeting, to 25bp from 50bp. The dovish risks to this meeting appear at least partly priced in, including some expectations of statement language acknowledging decelerating inflation, or a clear signal that the end of the hiking cycle is near.
  • As well as the Fed, we have the BOE and ECB rate decisions next week which will be followed up by Friday’s release of US non-farm payrolls.
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