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Gains Ground As Fed Rhetoric Softens

GOLD

Gold is little changed in the Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.5% higher at $2036.14 on Tuesday.

  • Bullion’s performance on Tuesday reflected a weaker USD and lower US Treasury yields as Fedspeak softened its rhetoric. Cash US Treasuries are dealing ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after finishing 4-8bps richer across benchmarks on Tuesday.
  • There was a muted initial reaction to Fed Mester economic outlook comments, which were largely in line with Chairman Powell's comments. However, Mester later reiterated the likelihood of three rate cuts in 2024. Fed President Kashkari also sounded more placative of late.
  • Projected Fed rate cut pricing gained slightly by Tuesday's close: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut at 20% vs. 17% prior. May 2024 at a cumulative -20bps at 5.12%, while June 2024 back to -43bp at 4.90%.
  • Yesterday’s increase moved gold away from support at $2015.0 but it remains some way off resistance at $2065.5 (Feb 1 high).
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