Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Continues Downward Trajectory

TTF is trading lower today, maintaining the trajectory seen since Jan. 31, and is down around 8.3% since the start of the week. Milder weather forecasts in Europe and a recovery in Norwegian pipeline flows are countering the ongoing geopolitical risks.

• TTF MAR 24 down -3.4% at 26.86€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.7% at 27.46€/MWh
• The temperature forecast for Europe remains mild with forecasts for next week shifting slightly warmer.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 342.9mcm/d.
• European natural gas storage at 67.87% on Feb 7 according to GIE data.
• The delayed Stade (7.5bcm/year) LNG terminal in Germany is expected to start at the end of Q1 and Wilhelmshaven 2 (4.5bcm/year) scheduled for operation in Q2: Montel
• More Qatari spot LNG cargoes are headed towards Asia instead of Europe due to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea with the producer offering spot LNG cargoes delivered FOB according to sources.
• Qatar's LNG exports increased in January to 7.58m tonnes despite a temporary halt to Red Sea transit during the month according to Kpler.
• Australia’s Woodside Energy Group Ltd. is in talks to buy LNG from several US export terminals according to Bloomberg sources.
• LNG exports from Nigeria in Jan rose to the highest level in two years in Jan, according to Bloomberg.
• Egypt’s LNG exports so far this year stood at 270,000 tons, down by 64%: Platts.
• India’ GAIL will issue more LNG swap tenders to exchange US term cargoes with supplies closer to India, according to Argus.
• Global LNG demand is forecast to rise 5% y/y to 423.4m tonnes in 2024, but capacity growth will remain limited according to the Icis 2024 LNG outlook.