Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Falls

TTF has fallen throughout European trading, facing downside pressure from ample supplies and milder weather, cutting heating demand.

• TTF FEB 24 down -4.6% at 27.59€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.9% at 28.65€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 9.6% above the 2018-2021 average, despite temperatures above the seasonal norm, Bnetza data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 348.2mcm/d amid a planned outage at Karsto until Jan 26.
• European natural gas storage is down to 73.46% full on Jan 23 according to GIE data
• European LNG sendout increased slightly up to 375mcm/d on Jan 23 but remains below levels seen in the previous couple of years at this time of year.
• Freeport’s LNG train 2 restarted Jan. 24 after tripping offline, according to a filing to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, cited by Bloomberg.
• QatarEnergy’s Al Khor LNG vessel is headed for Barcelona and is currently signaling to cross the Suez Canal, despite the country’s announcement to avoid the region and divert vessels if possible, Bloomberg ship-tracking showed.
• LNG freight continue to move lower despite ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
• The transit of Russian natural gas via Ukraine is likely to continue beyond this year, when the current deal is set to expire this year, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said.
• Russian natural gas exports are expected to increase to 108bcm in 2024 according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.