Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rallies

TTF front month has rallied during the day. Support from rising risks to shipping are offsetting the warm weather in December, strong wind power output in Germany, and healthy near-term supplies.

• TTF JAN 24 up 7.4% at 35.65€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 7.2% at 35.91€/MWh
• Vessel attacks in the Red Sea are increasing. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for attacks on two ships Dec. 18 - the Swan Atlantic and MSC Clara - using naval drones, according to Alarabiya news.
• BP and Euronav are the latest companies to pause all of its tanker traffic through the Red Sea, while Equinor is redirecting its vessels.
• Three LNG carriers have diverted away from the Bab al-Mandab strait amid Houthi attacks on vessels in the region, according to Argus.
• Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to continue until the end of December.
• European natural gas storage was down to 88.84% full on Dec 16 according to GIE data.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today up to 354.3mcm/d and just below the high of the year of 359mcm/d seen in late November.
• European LNG send out was at 407mcm/d on Dec 16.
• Shell has resumed operations at its Prelude LNG facility off the west coast of Australia, with the first cargo scheduled be loaded within days, Reuters said, citing two industry sources.
• The Panama Canal Authority announced last Friday that slots for LNG tankers have been reintroduced for January, supporting LNG cargo traffic through the waterway next month.
• Potential delays to new LNG import terminals in Germany may have limited impact on the near-term bearish gas market but could increase the German gas hub premium to other markets according to ICIS.