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GBP Bounce Helped by Fade in UK Implied Rates... But Still a Way to Go

UK
  • GBP bounce is persisting here, partially aided by the pullback in the USD off the week's best levels. Also moving in tandem with a fade off the cycle high for the implied BoE peak rate: Dec23 now priced at 5.478%, around 9bps off the 5.564% print just ahead of yesterday's close.
  • Still some way to go before making any material dent in the mid-week rally, however, with the contract ~48-50bps above the pre-CPI level on Wednesday.
  • As was the case after the Truss Budget last year (and the CPI print this week), GBP and rate expectations have moved inversely - evident in today's more stable GBP currency against a pullback in rate expectations. Next level for GBP at 1.2436, the 50-dma.
  • HSBC view change above in line with the change in consensus we've seen since CPI: Most looking for a peak rate of 5.00-5.25%, generally adding an extra hike to their view. Full summary of sell-side view changes here: https://marketnews.com/view-changes
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