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MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, September 25

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Will Not Fall Behind The Curve - Ueda

MNI BRIEF: Pay Growth May Be Offset By More Workers-ECB Bulletin

MNI: UK CBI SEP DIST TRADE REPORTED SALES -14

NBH Data Watch

MNI: GERMANY SEP IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 85.7

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

MNI BRIEF: Highlights From BOC Governor Macklem Speech

MNI BRIEF: Finance Minister Calls BOC Pause 'Welcome Relief'

VIEW CHANGES

BOE
  • BNP: Add an extra hike in August to a terminal 5.00% rate (previously had expected final hike in June).
  • Deutsche Bank: Expect 5.25% terminal rate (3x25bp hikes) from 4.75% previously. Expect first cut in May 2024 with 4.50% by end-2024 (from 3.75%) and 3.50% by end of cycle.
  • NatWest Markets: Base case now for 2x25bp hikes to 5.00% in August with risk of 5.50% by November (previous terminal rate forecast was 4.50%). "More aggressive tightening in the near-term will tend to reinforce the policy ‘pivot’ theme, though any cutting cycle probably begins later than we previously expected (Q3 rather than Q2 2024)."
  • Pantheon: Now expect June and August hikes to terminal 5.00% (previously had expected May to be the final hike). Push back first cut to May 2024 (from Feb) then quarterly 25bp cuts with Bank Rate at 4.25% by end-2024 (from 3.50%).
  • TD Securities: Now expect 2x25bp hikes in June and August to terminal 5.00% (with upside risks). "Expect that the MPC will keep Bank Rate at 5.00% until May next year, at which point it begins a series of 25bps rate cuts (the exact speed and timing will of course be a function of any idiosyncratic shocks at the time)." (Had previously expected first cut in February).
These view changes are in addition to the Berenberg, Citi, JP Morgan, Nomura and UniCredit view changes we flagged yesterday.
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