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GBP in Focus, With EUR/GBP Eyeing Key Levels

FOREX
  • GBP is in focus ahead of the BoE decision, with overnight vols bid across all GBP crosses. EUR/GBP vols north of 9 points tilts markets to price the biggest swing since the February BoE decision and the last MPR. The Bank are expected to hold the Bank Rate, but opinions are divided over the potential vote split and whether another MPC member - most likely Ramsden - will join Dhingra in voting for a rate cut at this meeting.
  • For a third consecutive session, the USD index is firmer, putting the 106.00 handle in sight and following the gyrations of the US yield curve, as the 2yr yield continues to creep higher and off pullback lows posted at 4.7077% last week.
  • JPY is the weakest in G10 as rate differentials squeeze the currency - the trade weighted JPY is again narrowing the gap with pre-intervention lows, which should keep pressure on the Japanese authorities to monitor the currency and verbally warn of fresh action should markets become disorderly once more.
  • Outside of the BoE decision, weekly jobless and continuing claims data cross, as well as speeches from ECB's Vujcic, Cipollone & de Guindos, BoE's Bailey & Pill and Fed's Daly.
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