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GDP Beats But Domestic Demand Hits A Sour Note

CANADA
  • Real GDP was notably stronger than expected in Q3, rising 2.9% annualized vs the 1.5% expected by both the BoC and analysts, for almost no slowdown from the 3.2% in Q2.
  • However, details were weaker than expected, with final domestic demand falling -0.6% annualized from weakness in both consumption and investment, and imports also falling off albeit after a stellar rise in Q2.
  • The BoC expects growth to stall in the Q4-1H23 with broadly equal odds or a small contraction or small increase, but a decline in domestic demand already in Q3 is likely softer than it will have been expecting.
  • USDCAD has extended session highs by increasing 50 pips to 1.3555 although the reaction has been more muted in GoCs.

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