GDP First Estimate (Q3 2019) Preview -......>

UK DATA: GDP First Estimate (Q3 2019) Preview - 0930GMT

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- BBG Consensus: 0.4% q/q, 1.1% y/y; Prev (Q2): -0.2% q/q, 1.3% y/y 

- Mkts are looking for UK q/q GDP to rise by 0.4% in Q3 following a contraction

of the economy by 0.2% in Q2.

- Q3's uptick is expected to be driven by consumer and govt spending which are

anticipated to edge up by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. 

- Manuf output is projected to rise by 0.1% in Sep after a 0.7% downtick in Aug.

- The index of services edged up in July by 0.3% before it stagnated in August,

suggesting a weak reading for Q3.

- Survey evidence points to further weakness in the manuf sector as the manuf

PMI and the CBI survey show further falls in output, new orders and employment. 

- Fwd-looking indicators also reveal that service sector activity remains muted

as the services PMI showed declines in new work and job losses in Q3. 

- Unless more clarity regarding the persisting uncertainties (Brexit, trade

disputes, etc.) has been achieved, the gloomy outlook is unlikely to change.