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GDP In Local Focus, 0830ET

CANADA

The first of the two main macro releases this week, real GDP hits at 0830ET. It is expected to have increased 0.1% M/M in Sept (per the prior advance) with a similar small increase into Oct, and 1.5% annualized in Q3 after 3.3% in Q2.

  • CIBC: Q3 GDP growth seen 1.3% with final domestic demand likely below 1%, whilst in the monthly data look for a 0.2-0.3% increase in the Oct advance.
  • RBC: Q3 reading just above their 1% forecast. Upside risk to 0.1% in the monthly print and with growth in Oct probably remaining positive.
  • Scotia: The monthly composition could bake in continued mild growth into Q4. That any growth is still being registered is an accomplishment in the wake of explosive world-beating growth over 2021Q3 through to 2022Q2.
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