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GDP Much Stronger Than BoC Forecast

CANADA
  • Real GDP was stronger in Feb than an already strong early estimate, revised up from 0.8% to 1.1% M/M with “broad-based increases across most sectors”.
  • Further, the March advance is for a solid +0.5% M/M, attributed to client-facing industries on continued reopening post-Omicron but also with increases in manufacturing and construction sectors.
  • The monthly and quarterly data don’t tally up exactly but if this March estimate is realised, it will see annualised GDP growth of 5.6% in Q1 (after the 6.7% in Q4) vs the 3.0% the BOC forecast just over two weeks ago.
  • It adds to evidence of excess demand, but it remains to be seen how much of this is a bringing forward of the 6% bounce the BoC forecasts for Q2.
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