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GDP Revisions Bely Domestic Demand Strength

US DATA
  • Real GDP was surprisingly revised down in Q4 from 3.28% to 3.21% annualized (cons 3.3). It follows an unrevised booming 4.86% in Q3.
  • Consumption however was surprisingly revised higher, from 2.83% to 2.97% (cons 2.7), for even less moderation after the 3.1% in Q3.
  • There were sizeable revisions elsewhere as well: government demand and private fixed investment all saw solid upward revisions, with the largest downward revisions coming from changes in net inventories (-0.34pps annualized) and net exports (-0.11pps annualized).
  • In short, final domestic demand was stronger than expected in the quarter, adding 3.16pps to quarterly GDP growth vs the 2.78pps previously thought. It follows 3.6pp in Q3.
  • The stronger signs for domestic demand are echoed in the upward revision for imports as well.

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