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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA DATA
- Real GDP was in the round slightly stronger than expected, rising 0.1% M/M in Oct (cons 0.1) but after an upward revised 0.2% in Sep and with the Nov advance also pointing to a 0.1% M/M increase vs some analysts looking for a flat reading.
- Assuming the Nov advance is accurate and there are no revisions, even no growth in December would deliver 1.3% annualized growth in Q4 vs the Bank’s October forecast of 0.5%.
- That is however based on momentum from earlier in Q3, with latest monthly prints indeed showing the broad stalling that the Bank expects through the end of this year and 1H23.
- There is still perhaps slightly more resilience than expected though, especially in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction and real estate which have stalled but not seen contractions for the past few months.
- Coming after stickier than expected CPI inflation on Wednesday, the labour report on Jan 6 is likely to be more pivotal in whether markets lean closer to another 25bp hike from the BoC on Jan 25. Indeed, market reaction has been relatively muted, with a slight re-widening in Can-US yield differentials and USDCAD volatile but not trending in either direction until some risk-off was seen at the US equity open.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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