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Generic Ballot Continues To Tighten Despite Poor Biden Approval


The Real Clear Politics Generic Congressional Ballot, which asks voters to make a binary choice between a generic Republican and Democrat candidate, has shown that Democrats continue to close the gap to the GOP.

  • According to Real Clear Politics, the current spread is +1.9% to the GOP, the tightest margin since January.
  • At the start of May the GOP held a +4.8 advantage.
  • The Hill writes: 'Two huge cultural issues — guns and abortion — are suddenly dominating the national conversation just five months out from midterm elections that were expected to be defined by the economy.'
  • It is likely that these two issues have stimulated a resurgence of Democrats in the generic ballot.
  • The White House is currently engaging in a pivot to the economy with a focus on inflation and energy prices. If this drive is successful it could further energise a Democrat recovery ahead of November's midterms.

Figure 1: Generic Congressional Ballot (Real Clear Politics)

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