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German-French Day-Ahead Premium Widens on Low Wind, Stable French Nuclear

POWER
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CWE day-ahead base-load contracts fell on the day amid reduced power demand over the weekend – with France-German baseload contracts widening on the day. Wind output over the weekend and next week in Germany is expected to be low, with solar output remaining firm – possibly limiting upside movement on delivery.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €72.26/MWh, down from €102.19/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot closed at just €40.39/MWh from €71.41/MWh in the previous day.
  • This placed the German-French baseload premium at €31.87/MWh from €30.78/MWh in the previous session.
  • German wind output is expected between 2.44-4.09GW, 4-6% load factors over 25-26 May, before rising slightly 7%, or ~ 4.4GW over 27-28 May, according to Spot Renewbales.
  • This Monday, German wind output is forecast to peak at 7.41GW at 2am, compared with a high of 7.50GW at 11pm on Friday: Bloomberg model.
  • But German solar output is forecasts 22-25%, or 12.47-13.99GW over 25-26 May, with output between 7.2-12.41GW over 27-28 May.
  • German solar output on Monday is seen peaking at 36.94GW at 1pm, compared with a high of 28.63GW at 2pm on Friday: Bloomberg model.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 35-53GW over 25-26 May, down from 41-64GW on Friday, data from Entso-E show. Demand will then increase between 37-63GW over 27-28 May.
  • Warmer-than-normal temperatures are still expected across Europe over the next two weeks.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 71% of full capacity on Friday – unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.
  • French utility had 40 reactors available with a combined output of 41.76GW as of 8 a.m. in Paris.


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CWE day-ahead base-load contracts fell on the day amid reduced power demand over the weekend – with France-German baseload contracts widening on the day. Wind output over the weekend and next week in Germany is expected to be low, with solar output remaining firm – possibly limiting upside movement on delivery.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €72.26/MWh, down from €102.19/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot closed at just €40.39/MWh from €71.41/MWh in the previous day.
  • This placed the German-French baseload premium at €31.87/MWh from €30.78/MWh in the previous session.
  • German wind output is expected between 2.44-4.09GW, 4-6% load factors over 25-26 May, before rising slightly 7%, or ~ 4.4GW over 27-28 May, according to Spot Renewbales.
  • This Monday, German wind output is forecast to peak at 7.41GW at 2am, compared with a high of 7.50GW at 11pm on Friday: Bloomberg model.
  • But German solar output is forecasts 22-25%, or 12.47-13.99GW over 25-26 May, with output between 7.2-12.41GW over 27-28 May.
  • German solar output on Monday is seen peaking at 36.94GW at 1pm, compared with a high of 28.63GW at 2pm on Friday: Bloomberg model.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 35-53GW over 25-26 May, down from 41-64GW on Friday, data from Entso-E show. Demand will then increase between 37-63GW over 27-28 May.
  • Warmer-than-normal temperatures are still expected across Europe over the next two weeks.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 71% of full capacity on Friday – unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.
  • French utility had 40 reactors available with a combined output of 41.76GW as of 8 a.m. in Paris.