German Voters Show Disapproval Of Chancellor’s Coalition

On Sunday there were state elections in the German states of Bavaria and Hesse which account for around a quarter of voters. While local issues are always important, in both states voters appear to have sent a message to Chancellor Scholz and his ruling coalition of the centre-left SPD, Greens and liberal FDP as support fell for all three in both states. Nationwide election are due in around two years.

• Bavaria, the second most populous German state, has been governed by a coalition of the centre-right CSU and the Free Voters (FW) and it looks like that will continue following Sunday’s election with them increasing their share of the vote by 4pp to a combined 52.8%.
• Support for the SPD fell 1.3pp to only 8.4%, the Greens fell 3.2pp to 14.4% and the FDP -2.1pp to 3%. The right-wing AfD polled third with 14.6% up 4.4pp since the 2018 vote. Most states won’t form coalitions with the AfD.
• In Hesse, the incumbent centre-right CDU received more votes than polls had projected rising 7.6pp to 34.6%. Whereas its coalition partner the Greens fell 5pp to 14.8%, but they are also a member of the federal coalition. The AfD did better than expected polling second, the first time in a western German state, with 18.4% of the vote. Support for the other two federal coalition partners the SPD and FDP fell with the former down 4.7pp to 15.1% and the latter -2.5pp to just make the 5% threshold.
• The results mean that a continuation of the current CDU/Greens coalition is likely but a deal with the SPD is also possible. The risk is that both of the possible junior partners may not want to be in government given their poor results.