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HUNGARY

‘Hawkish’ NBH Halts TRYHUF Momentum

US TSY OPTIONS

Put spread buyer

EQUITIES

China Bounce Fades, Hang Seng Closes Lower

     
Release for: September 2017
Survey among 219 analysts between May 2 and May 15, 2017
Source: Center for European Economic Research. ZEW
*Change in Level From Previous Month
                     Good       Normal        Bad         Balance
                 Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Current economy
Eurozone          38.5  -3.2   58.5   3.5    3.0  -0.3   35.5  -2.9
Germany           88.4   1.2   11.1  -1.2    0.5  -0.0   87.9   1.2
United States     56.4  -1.2   43.1   1.2    0.5  -0.0   55.9  -1.2
Japan             18.9  -3.2   75.7   1.8    5.4   1.4   13.5  -4.6
United Kingdom     8.6   0.6   73.8   3.8   17.6  -4.4   -9.0   5.0
France            12.5  -1.3   74.5   0.6   13.0   0.7   -0.5  -2.0
Italy              4.8  -0.2   60.3   2.7   34.9  -2.5  -30.1   2.3
     
                        Improve      Unchanged     Worse        Balance
                       Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic expectations
Eurozone                36.7   0.8   58.3   0.8    5.0  -1.6   31.7   2.4
Germany                 24.0   4.6   69.0  -2.2    7.0  -2.4   17.0   7.0
United States           18.7   1.0   68.2   1.2   13.1  -2.2    5.6   3.2
Japan                   12.5  -3.3   80.5   1.9    7.0   1.4    5.5  -4.7
United Kingdom           4.2  -1.3   38.0  -0.4   57.8   1.7  -53.6  -3.0
France                  39.5   3.8   56.3  -2.1    4.2  -1.7   35.3   5.5
Italy                   25.1   3.0   64.7  -2.6   10.2  -0.4   14.9   3.4
     
                               Rise       Unchanged     Decline      Balance
                           Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CPI
Eurozone                    32.8  -3.1   60.1   3.2    7.1  -0.1   25.7  -3.0
Germany                     39.7  -1.9   52.8   2.6    7.5  -0.7   32.2  -1.2
United States               51.3   2.7   45.2  -1.9    3.5  -0.8   47.8   3.5
Japan                       19.4   2.3   76.8  -3.0    3.8   0.7   15.6   1.6
United Kingdom              50.5   1.2   42.6   1.1    6.9  -2.3   43.6   3.5
France                      32.1  -0.2   62.6   0.9    5.3  -0.7   26.8   0.5
Italy                       30.1  -1.4   62.9   1.6    7.0  -0.2   23.1  -1.2
Short-term interest rates
Eurozone                    15.0  -2.4   84.5   2.9    0.5  -0.5   14.5  -1.9
United States               79.3   0.6   20.7  -0.1    0.0  -0.5   79.3   1.1
Japan                        4.9   0.3   94.0  -0.4    1.1   0.1    3.8   0.2
United Kingdom              36.0   8.2   57.5  -8.0    6.5  -0.2   29.5   8.4
Long-term interest rates
Germany                     64.0  -1.4   35.0   3.3    1.0  -1.9   63.0   0.5
United States               77.4   2.9   22.1  -1.5    0.5  -1.4   76.9   4.3
Japan                       23.6   5.6   75.9  -5.6    0.5   0.0   23.1   5.6
United Kingdom              52.4   4.0   44.4  -3.6    3.2  -0.4   49.2   4.4
Stock market prices
Eurozone                    56.8  -1.7   33.5  -0.3    9.7   2.0   47.1  -3.7
Germany(DAX)                59.7  -1.2   30.1   1.2   10.2   0.0   49.5  -1.2
Germany(NEMAX50)            54.6  -3.6   36.8   4.2    8.6  -0.6   46.0  -3.0
United States               41.6   0.2   42.8   0.3   15.6  -0.5   26.0   0.7
Japan                       40.0   2.2   53.5  -0.6    6.5  -1.6   33.5   3.8
United Kingdom              29.6   2.2   47.3   4.4   23.1  -6.6    6.5   8.8
France                      48.8   1.8   42.3  -1.3    8.9  -0.5   39.9   2.3
Italy                       37.9   1.2   47.0  -1.9   15.1   0.7   22.8   0.5
     
                  Appreciation  Unchanged   Depreciation  Balance
      
Exchange rates
vs euro(1)        Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level   Chg
--------------------------------------------------------------------
US Dollar          48.1   0.9   30.7  -1.5   21.2   0.6   26.9   0.3
Yen                10.8  -2.4   72.2   2.9   17.0  -0.5   -6.2  -1.9
British Pound      16.7   6.3   30.3  -1.1   53.0  -5.2  -36.3  11.5
Swiss Franc        13.7  -4.4   69.4   7.2   16.9  -2.8   -3.2  -1.6
Crude oil prices   24.0   0.3   68.0  -3.4    8.0   3.1     16  -2.8
     
                        Improve      Unchanged    Worse         Balance
      
                     Level   Chg  Level   Chg  Level    Chg  Level   Chg
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Germany Sectors
Banks                 23.8   0.2   41.9   2.6   34.3   -2.8  -10.5   3.0
Insurances            21.5   2.4   43.6  -9.2   34.9    6.8  -13.4  -4.4
Vehicle industry      14.2   6.3   51.5   4.6   34.3  -10.9  -20.1  17.2
Chemical ind.         33.3  -1.2   61.9  -0.7    4.8    1.9   28.5  -3.1
Steel industry        25.0   2.1   62.5  -0.9   12.5   -1.2   12.5   3.3
Electrical ind.       35.0   0.4   60.2  -1.2    4.8    0.8   30.2  -0.4
Machinery ind.        49.1   2.5   44.4  -3.3    6.5    0.8   42.6   1.7
Consumer gds/retail   60.6   5.2   36.5  -5.8    2.9    0.6   57.7   4.6
Construction          54.1  -1.6   41.2   1.4    4.7    0.2   49.4  -1.8
Utilities             22.4  -2.0   70.0   1.4    7.6    0.6   14.8  -2.6
Service Sector        39.0   2.0   58.0  -2.1    3.0    0.1   36.0   1.9
Telecommunication     20.9  -6.7   74.3   4.2    4.8    2.5   16.1  -9.2
Info Technology       56.0  -5.4   42.2   4.2    1.8    1.2   54.2  -6.6
     
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
negative balance indicates an expected depreciation and the currency vs 
the euro. A positive an appreciation
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAGDT$,M$E$$$,M$G$$$,M$X$$$]