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Gilt Volatility In Focus Early, FOMC Minutes And PPI Eyed Later

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UK Gilt markets remained the focus in early Wednesday trade, with attention set to turn to FOMC minutes later in the session, and US CPI tomorrow.

  • Gilts have calmed after a sharp 150 tick drop at the open for 1st future (and almost 200 ticks lower at one point on a knee-jerk move). Overnight comments by BoE's Bailey affirming the end of emergency purchases this week were offset by an FT report this morning that the Bank was eyeing extending buys; but the BoE has officially reaffirmed Friday's end-date.
  • Multiple European central bank speakers today: BoE's Pill and Mann (Haskel earlier didn't comment on mon pol), with ECB's Lagarde, Knot, and de Cos as well.
  • USTs easily outperforming with yields down across the curve, taking a breather after late Tuesday's BoE induced sell-off.
  • Sept PPI (0830ET/1330UK) and September FOMC minutes (1400ET/1900UK) eyed later, but much more focus on CPI Thursday. Fed's Kashkari, Barr, and Bowman appear as well.
  • The German curve has modestly twist steepened; periphery EGB spreads are slightly tighter.

Latest levels:

  • US: 2-Yr yld down 2.5bps at 4.2806%, 5Y down 3bps at 4.1405%, 10Y down 2.6bps at 3.9207%, 30Y down 1.4bps at 3.9083%.UK: 2-Yr yld down 7.2bps at 4.219%, 5-Yr up 1.2bps at 4.572%, 10-Yr up 5.3bps at 4.496%, 30-Yr up 11.2bps at 4.911%.
  • DE: 2-Yr yield down 0.3bps at 1.838%, 5-Yr up 1.1bps at 2.069%, 10-Yr up 3.1bps at 2.329%, 30-Yr up 7bps at 2.371%.
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.1bps tighter at 238bps

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