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Gilts lead core FI higher while BTPs look to confidence vote

BONDS
  • Core fixed income has been grinding higher this morning, led by a repricing of rate hike expectations and partially reversing some of the moves seen yesterday.
  • Gilts are leading the way higher in core FI following inflation data that only marginally beat economists' consensus expectations - the market had likely been looking for more.
  • BTPs are the other notable movers this morning as Draghi addresses the Senate. 10-year spreads to Bunds are 5.8bp tighter on the day at the time of writing. The confidence vote is due to be held later today, with out policy team expecting around 17:45BST / 12:45ET.
  • Today will also see the final MP votes in the Conservative party leadership race with Sunak expected to get through but it remains uncertain whether he will be joined on the members' ballotpaper by Penny Mordaunt or Liz Truss - with only 6 votes between the latter two in the last round of voting.
  • We will also see US existing home sales data released today.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-8+ today at 118-07+ with 10y UST yields down -3.5bp at 2.988% and 2y yields down -5.4bp at 3.188%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.61 today at 151.71 with 10y Bund yields down -4.7bp at 1.226% and Schatz yields down -3.3bp at 0.587%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.84 today at 115.34 with 10y yields down -6.5bp at 2.112% and 2y yields down -4.8bp at 1.973%.

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