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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessGILTS: Off CPI-Driven Highs, Curve Bull Steepens
Gilt futures last +15 at 100.38.
- Contract traded as high as 100.54 following the softer-than-expected domestic CPI data, before fading from best levels as EGBs came under pressure.
- Yields 2.5-5.0bp lower, curve bull steepens on dovish STIR repricing post-data.
- Last week’s yield lows untested across the curve.
- 2s10s and 5s30s remain below ’24 peaks.
- SONIA futures back from early highs alongside gilts, 0.25-5.5 firmer on the day.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 9bp of cuts for Sep & ~48bp through year end, after the latter showed more than 50bp of cumulative cuts following CPI.
- We believe that today's data doesn't really change the narrative too much, at least from the BoE’s perspective.
- Elsewhere, the DMO announced the syndication of a new long 15-year gilt maturing 15 January 2040 (w/c 2 September).
- This was an interesting choice. There had been some "isolated" calls for such issuance in the last investor/GEMM consultation - but most were divided between a new 25-year gilt or a tap of 30/40 year gilts.
- What’s more, 15s continue to trade closer to the richer end of their ’24 range on the 10-/15-/20-Year butterfly, although haven’t underperformed on that structure since the announcement.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 4.860 | -9.0 |
Nov-24 | 4.634 | -31.6 |
Dec-24 | 4.469 | -48.1 |
Feb-25 | 4.262 | -68.8 |
Mar-25 | 4.113 | -83.7 |
May-25 | 3.939 | -101.1 |
Jun-25 | 3.837 | -111.3 |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.