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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessGILTS: Rally Extends Further, Curve Bull Steepens
The rally in gilt futures has extended through round number resistance at 101.00, with the contract trading as high as 101.26.
- Softer-than-expected UK data added to the broader FI bid that was seen in Asia following the Harris-Trump debate.
- The data allowed the recent cross-market outperformance vs. Bunds to extend: https://marketnews.com/bonds-gilts-extend-recent-tightening-vs-bunds
- Bullish technical control deepens further on the move, with next resistance in futures noted at the August 5 high (101.46).
- The lack of concession for 10s made for relatively soft pricing and cover metrics at the latest DMO 10-Year supply, although pullbacks were limited.
- Yields 4.0-6.5bp lower, bull steepening.
- 30s and 50s probed early August risk-off lows, but gilt bulls have failed to force meaningful breaks there as of yet.
- SONIA futures have extended their early rally, last flat to +10.0, a little off session highs. M5 through H6 through early August peaks.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 48bp of cuts through year-end and ~134bp through Jun ’25 vs. closer to 45bp and 128bp late Tuesday.
- U.S. CPI dominates the macro calendar today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 4.918 | -3.2 |
Nov-24 | 4.647 | -30.3 |
Dec-24 | 4.468 | -48.3 |
Feb-25 | 4.196 | -75.4 |
Mar-25 | 3.970 | -98.0 |
May-25 | 3.739 | -121.1 |
Jun-25 | 3.609 | -134.1 |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.