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Free AccessGlapinski Says Talk of Rate Change Before 2026 Can't Be Ruled Out
- "POLAND CAN'T RULE OUT RATE CHANGE TALK BEFORE 2026: GLAPINSKI" - BBG
- "GLAPINSKI: POLISH RATE DEBATE WARRANTED IF CPI DROP SUSTAINABLE"
Those comments from Glapinski are more in-line with communication from the rest of the Committee, as the Governor has previously noted that there is little potential for a change in rates until 2026, an unusual remark given the long horizon of his guidance.
- The change in stance has triggered a solid uptick for EURPLN and POL GBs alike, taking the cross through its earlier highs while yields on across the curve are down between 2-7bps. For EURPLN, initial resistance comes in at 4.2940, the 50-day EMA.
Table 1. Comments On Interest-Rate Outlook From Individual MPC Members
| Policymaker | Forward Guidance | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Glapinski | "We can forget about an interest-rate cut while inflation is rising significantly (...) Such a possibility may appear in 2026 at the earliest, when inflation starts to fall." (Press Conference) | Jul 5 |
| Ireneusz Dabrowski | "The most likely scenario is still that rates remain unchanged until the end of this year and any changes, most likely rate cuts, will only take place in the first or second quarter of next year." (Bloomberg) | Aug 8 |
| Iwona Duda | "Perhaps the second half of 2025 is the [right] time to start the discussion on cutting interest rates." (Business Insider) | Jul 22 |
| Wieslaw Janczyk | "I have to confirm [that the government took the possibility of cutting rates away from the MPC by loosening anti-inflation shields] (...) We have positive real interest rates, which I really don't like." (NBP OF TV) | Jun 17 |
| Cezary Kochalski | "I could imagine a situation where, due to possible risks to inflation, the moment for a decision on possible rate cuts would only appear in 2026. But referring to the July projection and available information, I believe that the space for such a discussion could appear as early as 2025." (PAP) | Jul 11 |
| Gabriela Maslowska | "I hope (...) that next year conditions will emerge for rates to be lowered rather than for them to have to be raised." (Bloomberg) | Jun 21 |
| Henryk Wnorowski | "Personally I can see reasons to discuss rate cuts in 2Q2025." (BIZNES24) | Jul 31 |
| Ludwik Kotecki | "If a scenario of our GDP growth being below +3% Y/Y this year is confirmed, and there are no prospects for any significant acceleration next year, then there will certainly be room for a rate cut at the start of next year." (Money.pl) | Aug 12 |
| Przemyslaw Litwiniuk | Has not commented on the interest-rate outlook since March. | - |
| Joanna Tyrowicz | "I keep my terminal rate consistently at the same level of 7.75%." (MNI) | Jun 25 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.