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Global Forces In Play For BoE Pricing, Before Gilt Stabilisation Takes Hawkish Edge Off


Akin to ECB pricing, BoE-dated OIS hasn’t seen much in the way of domestic drivers of note on Monday.

  • There was an initial uptick on the wider cheapening in core global FI markets and higher oil prices, albeit with the latter moderating from extremes. That allowed terminal policy rate pricing to show a little above 5.50% this morning, before moderating with Gilts happy to generally consolidate within the range established early on, even as core global FI counterparts extended their early weakness.
  • Terminal pricing currently sits just below 5.50% in policy rate terms (seen at the end of December meeting), around 5.475%, with residual chances of a > 50bp hike priced over the next few MPC decisions.
  • We didn’t get near a challenge of recent hawkish extremes before the move back from intraday highs.
  • Local headline flow has been fairly limited, with nothing in the way of meaningful movement in the final services PMI reading for May.
  • The remainder of the week is light on market moving domestic economic data releases, before tier 1 data and BoE speak returns next week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)

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