MNI BRIEF: EU Parliament Backs Von Der Leyen For 2nd Term

MNI: ECB LEAVES KEY DEPOSIT RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.75%

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 18

MNI BRIEF: China To Upgrade Rural Land Reform: 3rd Plenum

MNI BRIEF: China's Third Plenum Eye's Deeper Financial Reform

MNI BRIEF: China Third Plenum Expands International Opening

Employment Insurance Rises In May After Stable Trend, Up 14% YOY

MNI: US JUL PHILADELPHIA FED MFG INDEX 13.9

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +20K TO 243K IN JUL 13 WK

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Labour Market Insight: July 2024 Release

We think the UK labour market report was soft in the detail but still see August's MPC decision as 50/50 with regards to the first cut of the cycle.

HomepageMarkets
  • On the surface this morning’s labour market report was broadly in line with expectations. However, looking in more detail at the private sector regular wage data, there was quite a soft single month print for May.
  • We think that today's wage data is a little softer than we expected (albeit in line with consensus expectations), and may actually embolden some MPC members to vote for a cut in two weeks time. We still see it as close to a 50/50 decision.
  • We look in more detail regarding how the data compares versus tracking for its Q2 forecast as well as analysing pay momentum metrics and the V/U ratio.
  • We also summarise 10 sell-side reviews of the release.
For the full PDF see:

Labour Market July 2024 - Review.pdf

132 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • On the surface this morning’s labour market report was broadly in line with expectations. However, looking in more detail at the private sector regular wage data, there was quite a soft single month print for May.
  • We think that today's wage data is a little softer than we expected (albeit in line with consensus expectations), and may actually embolden some MPC members to vote for a cut in two weeks time. We still see it as close to a 50/50 decision.
  • We look in more detail regarding how the data compares versus tracking for its Q2 forecast as well as analysing pay momentum metrics and the V/U ratio.
  • We also summarise 10 sell-side reviews of the release.
For the full PDF see:

Labour Market July 2024 - Review.pdf