MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: ECB Policy Decision Due

Thursday’s data schedule will focus on the ECB’s MPC meeting today, ahead of the Easter long weekend. US retail sales, jobless claims and the U Michigan index will be of interest in the afternoon.

ECB Monetary Policy Decision (1245 BST)

Eurozone March inflation jumped 2pp to 7.5% Y/Y, significantly outpacing the 6.7% consensus estimate and producer prices accelerated to 31.4% Y/Y in February, up from 1.5% Y/Y 12m before. The upside potential for oil prices in the event of further restrictions on Russian energy implies little respite in soaring prices.

Consensus expects no material change in policy at the April ECB meeting due to wages not yet seen adjusting to spot inflation, however, MNI believes this meeting is a close call and that markets should be prepared for a hawkish surprise. The key focus will be whether rhetoric shifts to highlight inflation concerns over growth, hinting at a pre-September hike. The more dovish scenario would see emphasis placed more upon downside growth risks and uncertainty regarding the Ukraine war.

For MNI’s in-depth preview of the upcoming meeting click here.

US Retail Sales (1330 BST)

The March retail sales print sees small improvements, implying that the onset of the Ukraine war and inflation failed to dampen consumer spending in the US. Sales are projected to tick up to +0.6% m/m in March (Feb +0.3%) and recover to +1.0% m/m (Feb +0.2%) excluding auto which fell 22% y/y in March.

US Jobless Claims (1330 BST)

US initial jobless claims are seen ticking up 4k to 170k in the week ending April 9, remaining around the same level seen over the last four weeks. These are levels last seen in the late 60’s, implying extremely tight labour market conditions which underpin confidence in the US economy. Continuing claims are expected to decrease by 23k to 1500k.

University of Michigan Sentiment (1500 BST)

Consensus is expecting the U. Michigan consumer sentiment to step down to 59.0 from 59.4 in the prelim April print, reaching a fresh 2011 low. The one-year inflation expectation is seen inching up 0.1pp to 5.5% at a new 1981 high.

The slide in sentiment is largely inflation based as consumers highlighted concerns of reduced living standards (the Ukraine war not being cited).

With the ECB meeting today, policymaker appearances include President Christine Lagarde at the post decision press conference and in the U.S., just Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester and Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker due to speak. Links to events are in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
14/04/2022	0600/0800	***		SE	Inflation report
14/04/2022	1100/0700	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
14/04/2022	1145/1345	***		EU	ECB Deposit Rate
14/04/2022	1145/1345	***		EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
14/04/2022	1145/1345	***		EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
14/04/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
14/04/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
14/04/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
14/04/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
14/04/2022	1230/0830	***		US	PPI
14/04/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Import/Export Price Index
14/04/2022	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
14/04/2022	1230/1430			EU	ECB President Lagarde Post-meet presser
14/04/2022	1400/1000	***		US	University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p)
14/04/2022	1400/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
14/04/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
14/04/2022	1530/1130	**		US	NY Fed Weekly Economic Index
14/04/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
14/04/2022	1530/1130	**		US	US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
14/04/2022	1920/1520			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
14/04/2022	2200/1800			US	Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker