MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: France, Italy Inflation Data Due

Thursday’s key data releases are plentiful, including the UK’s second GDP estimate, followed by French consumer spending and inflation, German labour market data, Eurozone unemployment and Italian flash inflation. Canada’s January GDP print, US personal income and consumption and the Chicago PMI are also on the schedule.

UK GDP Second Estimate (0700 BST)

UK’s GDP growth of +1.0% q/q and +6.5% y/y for Q4 2021 are seen being confirmed.

France Inflation & Consumer Spending (0745 BST)

The March flash estimate sees French inflation accelerating to +1.4% m/m from +0.9% m/m, and bumping up to +4.9% y/y from +4.2% y/y in the harmonised readings. Substantial upside surprises are expected on the March headline print, as this inflation includes the energy price surge of the Ukraine war and associated Russian sanctions.

Wednesday’s German data saw HICP hit +7.6% y/y, 0.8pp above market forecasts and a 2.1pp jump in February. These stark accelerations increase pressure on the ECB to move out of negative interest rate territory, despite growth prospects appearing subdued.

French consumer spending is expected to see some recovery in the February print, however, we note that this data is somewhat stale given the shift in the geopolitical landscape since.

German Labour Report (0855 BST)

The March unemployment report is projected to highlight a softer reduction in unemployment of -20.0k (-33.0k in Feb) in the eleventh consecutive month of falling. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.0%, which was reached last month and is in line with pre-pandemic levels.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (1000 BST)

Unemployment in the euro area is anticipated to tick down to 6.7% in February in the tenth month of decline as the region's labour market remained resilient through the fourth Covid wave. This is below the pre-pandemic late-2019 level of 7.5%.

Italian Inflation (1000 BST)

Analysts are pricing a 1.0pp jump to +7.2% y/y harmonised inflation in Italy and a 2.0pp jump to an acceleration of +2.8% m/m. As with all March eurozone inflation data, additional price pressures from soaring energy prices hint at substantial upside risks to these numbers.

US Personal Spending and Income (1330 BST)

US data is expected to highlight softer spending growth despite increased income in February. Personal income is seen growing +0.5% m/m (Jan 0.0%) and spending softening to +0.5% m/m (Jan +2.1%).

MNI Chicago Business Barometer (1445 BST)

The March Chicago PMI print will highlight the current health of the US manufacturing industry, following divergences in other regional PMI indicators as growth outlooks begin to differ on the back US inflation reaching +7.9% y/y in February.

Optimism remains resilient with consensus is expecting a small rebound to 57.0 following the February dip, underpinning justification for the Fed’s 50bp hike pencilled in for the June FOMC meeting.

Source: MNI

Key policymaker appearances today include the ECB’s Philip Lane and Luis de Guindos, as well as NY Fed’s John Williams. Where available, links can be found in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
31/03/2022	2350/0850	**		JP	Industrial production
31/03/2022	0030/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
31/03/2022	0030/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
31/03/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
31/03/2022	0600/0700	*		UK	Quarterly current account balance
31/03/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
31/03/2022	0630/0730			UK	DMO Gilt Operations Calendar April-June
31/03/2022	0630/0830	**		CH	Retail Sales
31/03/2022	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
31/03/2022	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
31/03/2022	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
31/03/2022	0755/0955	**		DE	unemployment
31/03/2022	0800/1000			EU	ECB Lane Lecture at Paris School of Economics
31/03/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
31/03/2022	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
31/03/2022	1000/1200			EU	ECB de Guindos at Discussion at University of Amsterdam
31/03/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
31/03/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
31/03/2022	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
31/03/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/03/2022	1300/0900			US	New York Fed's John Williams
31/03/2022	1345/0945	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/03/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
31/03/2022	1530/1130	**		US	NY Fed Weekly Economic Index
31/03/2022	1530/1130	**		US	US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
31/03/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
31/03/2022	1600/1200	**		US	USDA GrainStock - NASS
31/03/2022	1600/1200	***		US	USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - NASS
01/04/2022	2200/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)