Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday throws up a heavy data schedule, with French, Italian and Eurozone flash numbers due in the morning alongside German labour stats, before attention turns towards the Hungarian central bank decision, Canadian GDP, the Chicago PMI and US consumer confidence in the afternoon.
French, Italian and Eurozone Flash HICP (0745 / 1000 BST)
France (0745 BST): French HICP is projected to increase by 0.4pp to +5.8% y/y in May, 0.2pp faster on the month at +0.7% m/m. PPI, consumer spending and GDP prints are due alongside inflation in this morning’s data. The final Q1 2022 GDP release is likely to confirm no growth (0.0% q/q) for the beginning of the year.
Italy (1000 BST): Italy is also seeing a 0.4pp jump in the May flash, bringing HICP to +6.7% y/y. A 0.1pp acceleration on April is anticipated, implying +0.5% m/m inflation compared to the previous month.
Euro Area (1000 BST): The aggregate headline inflation reading for the bloc is expected at +7.8% y/y, up from +7.5% y/y with the monthly change holding steady at +0.6%.
Upside risks to these numbers are substantial following yesterday’s Spanish and German surprises, notably the 0.9pp jump to +8.7% y/y for Germany.
Energy and food inflation continue to be the key drivers of price pressures, however with Spanish core inflation jumping 0.5pp to +4.9% y/y in May, inflation spillover is becoming widespread.
This adds fuel to the argument that the ECB should act more aggressively in coming meetings. However, the tightening cycle looks set to kick off with a 25bp hike in June following Chief Economist Philip Lane’s comments yesterday which strongly suggested that 50bp is off the table for now.
German Labour Statistics (0855 BST)
Consensus is anticipating no change in Germany’s unemployment rate of 5.0%, however a further strong decrease of 15.5k unemployed persons in the 15th consecutive month of falling joblessness. As hospitality and retail continue to absorb more workers, the impact of soaring in these industries may see employment opportunities wane going forward.
Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision (1300 BST)
Markets are pricing a 50bp hike for the NBH this afternoon, slowing the pace of tightening and bringing the benchmark rate to 5.90%. The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate after pausing at 6.45% in the past month.
As inflation remains partly driven by external factors outside of the monetary policy realm, Hungarian policymakers have been focusing on the 1W depo facility as hiking too aggressively will unlikely have ST impact on HUF and risk accelerating the economic slowdown.
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Canada GDP by Industry & Economic Accounts (1330 BST)
Q1 2022 annualised GDP is forecasted to come in strong at +5.2%, a modest slowing from +6.7% in Q4. March growt is seen strong at +3.8% y/y. This comes ahead of Wednesday’s BoC hike, underpinning confidence in the 50bp which is pencilled in.
Chicago PMI (1445 BST)
The May Chicago PMI print will highlight the current health of the US manufacturing industry, following slumps in the majority of regional PMIs in May. Consensus is expecting a 1.3-point slowdown to 55.1.
US Consumer Confidence (1500 BST)
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index all but wraps up today’s hefty data schedule, with a decline to 103.8 from 107.3 forecasted for May. This would mark the fifth consecutive month of decline as inflation continues to see expectations dive.
There are no key policymaker appearances are slated for today.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 31/05/2022 | 0630/0830 | ** |  | CH | Retail sales |
| 31/05/2022 | 0645/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (p) |
| 31/05/2022 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 31/05/2022 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 31/05/2022 | 0645/0845 | *** | | FR | GDP (f) |
| 31/05/2022 | 0700/0900 | *** | | CH | GDP |
| 31/05/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | Unemployment |
| 31/05/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE M4 |
| 31/05/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 31/05/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | IT | HICP (p) |
| 31/05/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | EU | HICP (p) |
| 31/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 31/05/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** |  | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 31/05/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 31/05/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 31/05/2022 | 1345/0945 | ** | | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/05/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 31/05/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 31/05/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 31/05/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.