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Global risk-off Environment Weighs on EM Currencies

EM FX
  • Demand for the US Dollar has been surging since the start of the month, supported by the global risk off environment amid growing concerns over renewed sanctions on Russia.
  • DXY index has been finding resistance at the 99.7290 level in the past two days after breaking above 99.42 this week (99.7290 represents the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 89.21 – 102.98 range).
    • A break above that level would open the door for a move up to 100.
  • To the exception of the PHP and IDR, all EM currencies are down in April.
  • HUF remains the worst performingcurrency among the EM world, down 4.4% against the US Dollar as market has been pricing in renewed political tensions with the EU in the near to medium term following Orban’s victory over the week end.

Source: Bloomberg

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