MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Stand Out Week for Central Banks

A massive week lies ahead with the Riksbank, PBOC, Fed, BOJ, SNB, Norges Bank and BOE all set to meet. Frontloaded hikes of minimum 50bp are the name of the game for all except China and Japan. Data points of interest kick off on Tuesday.

Tuesday:

Riksbank Meeting (0830 BST): The Riksbank is widely expected to up the pace of tightening at its September meeting with debate set to centre on a 75-basis-point hike, following the 50-basis-point increase at its previous meeting. In August target CPIF inflation hit 9.0%, with the Riksbank having previously expected an 8% peak. A new set of forecasts will be published alongside the policy decision Tuesday. One possibility is that the Riksbank will open the door to successive 75bps hikes and raise the anticipated rate peak.

Canada CPI (1330 BST): A second month of deceleration is projected for Canadian CPI in August, with the headline print forecast at +7.2% y/y following 7.6% in July and the June peak of 8.1%. On the month, prices should contract by -0.1%. Following the weaker-than-expected deceleration in US headline prints, upside risks are likely in Canada, which alongside a substantial fiscal stimulus package could push the BOC’s policy rate to continue aggressively hiking.

PBOC: China's loan prime rates are seen unchanged unchanged at 3.65% (1-year) and 4.30% (5-year). As growth continues to decelerate, some sell-side firms have lowered forecasts substantially to 2.5% (vs the 5.5% target).

Wednesday:

Fed Decision (1900 BST): Another 75bp hike is clearly in sight, with markets pricing over 81bp.

The Federal Reserve is expected this week to raise the benchmark funds rate by 75bp for the third consecutive meeting to a target range of 3.00-3.25%, though market futures are pricing in the possibility of an outsized 100bp hike. Immediate attention will be on the quarterly update of the FOMC's economic projections, which are expected to show higher forecasts for the terminal fed funds rate and inflation, alongside weaker GDP growth and elevated unemployment. Following the decision, Chair Powell's press conference will be eyed for any further guidance on the magnitude of hikes at upcoming meetings, the FOMC's expectations of the terminal rate, and any pushback against market expectations for 2023 rate cuts.

Thursday:

BOJ Meeting (0630 BST): The BOJ is set to keep rates unchanged despite building pressure to act on inflation, a slumping yen and JGB yields testing yield curve control.

SNB Meeting (0830 BST): Another 50bp would bring the SNB policy rate into positive territory at 0.25% although a 75bp hike is also likely. This follows the surprise 50bp hike in June (the first in 15 years) as the Central Bank reacted swiftly to global inflation and tightening outlooks. Currency intervention will be a hot topic, following the shift to expressing two-way risks in the last meeting.

Norges Bank Meeting (0900 BST): Following suit, Norway’s central bank is also eyeing 50bp, bringing rates to 2.25%. Focus will be on the pace going forward and the question of 25bp vs 50bp in November as the key rate is expected to top out around 3.25%.

BOE Meeting (1200 BST): As the economy edges into recession, headline inflation saw only a moderate slowing to a concerning 9.9% in August, with price pressures largely broad-based. Following confirmation of a substantial fiscal package to assist with the energy cost crisis, the consensus is looking for the BOE to deliver a second 50bp hike, bringing the bank rate up to 2.25%. Close to 55bp are priced in by markets at current and this hot pace will likely continue into year-end. The Bank will also hold a vote to confirm whether active gilt sales will begin (likely late September/early October at GBP 10bln per quarter as previously alluded to).

Friday:

GfK UK Consumer Confidence (1201 BST): The GfK consumer confidence index is anticipated to see a mild 2-point improvement in September, following the record low reading of -44 in August. This will largely be due to the energy support package recently announced. Whether this improvement materialises remains to be seen, as sentiment remains hampered by inflation and recession concerns.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
19/09/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
19/09/2022	0900/1100			EU	ECB de Guindos at Consejos Consultivos Meeting
19/09/2022	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/09/2022	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
19/09/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
19/09/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/09/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/09/2022	0730/0930	**		SE	Riksbank Interest Rate
20/09/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Acc
20/09/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
20/09/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
20/09/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
20/09/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
20/09/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
20/09/2022	1700/1900			EU	ECB Lagarde Lecture in Frankfurt
20/09/2022	1930/1530			CA	BOC Deputy Beaudry speech on Pandemic Macroeconomics
21/09/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/09/2022	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
21/09/2022	0700/0900			EU	ECB de Guindos Speech at Insurance Summit
21/09/2022	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
21/09/2022	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
21/09/2022	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
21/09/2022	1430/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
21/09/2022	1800/1400	***		US	FOMC Statement
22/09/2022	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
22/09/2022	0730/0930			CH	SNB interest rate decision
22/09/2022	0730/0930	***		CH	SNB policy decision
22/09/2022	0800/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
22/09/2022	0800/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
22/09/2022	1100/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
22/09/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
22/09/2022	1230/0830	*		US	Current Account Balance
22/09/2022	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
22/09/2022	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
22/09/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
22/09/2022	1500/1700			EU	ECB Schnabel Keynote at Network Luxemburg
22/09/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
23/09/2022	2300/0900	***		AU	IHS Markit Flash Australia PMI
23/09/2022	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
23/09/2022	0715/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0715/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0730/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0730/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Composite PMI (p)
23/09/2022	0830/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash)
23/09/2022	0830/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Services PMI (flash)
23/09/2022	0830/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash)
23/09/2022	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
23/09/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
23/09/2022	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
23/09/2022	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (flash)
23/09/2022	1800/1400			US	Fed Listens Event