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GoCs Modestly Underperform Tsys, Scotia See 3.5% Peak Rate

CANADA
  • GoCs modestly underperforming Tsys since open, with the front end unchanged and long end yields +0.5bps.
  • It leaves 2Y, 5Y and 10Y benchmark yields close to last week’s lows after some wild swings with US CPI and the surprise 100bp BoC hike, with the 2Y at 3.22% (3.40% high) and 10Y at 3.08% (3.26% high). Both 2s5s and 2s10s of -13.5bps are close to 2019 lows.
  • Scotiabank yesterday revised up their BoC rate call by 50bps to peak at 3.5% this year (currently 2.5%) where it stays through 2023. Growth projections were revised down but to a still healthy 3.5% in ’22 and 1.6% in ’23, with pent-up household demand seen avoiding the recession RBC has forecast.

Canada 2s5s (pink) and 2s10 (white) - showing mid price vs last price in textSource: Bloomberg

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