Goldman: Better Growth Despite Less Fiscal Stimulus

Goldman Sachs has pared back its expectations for U.S. fiscal stimulus, but adjusted its GDP forecasts higher nonetheless. "Pre-election fiscal stimulus looks like a much closer call than it did a couple of months ago amid mounting signs of trouble", but even so, "Congress is slightly more likely than not to enact a stimulus package by the end of the September". If so, Goldman expects it to be "somewhat smaller than the $1.5 to $2.0 trillion package we believed was likely a month ago".

Looking at what that package may consist of, Goldman sees only "lukewarm support for another round of payments to individuals and concerns regarding the overall size of the package could crowd out an additional round of checks". GS now assumes a $1.0trn package including $400 weekly additional employment benefits through year-end, more small business support, and "modest" state fiscal aid, but no further payments to individuals.

Nonetheless, on the back of much-better-than-expected spending and employment data, Goldman has made upgrades to its disposable personal income forecast (+6.3% in 2020, up from 4.0% previously; -1.9% in 2021 vs -2.3% pvs;: note the contraction as gov't transfer payments withdrawn).

In turn, citing "continued strong signals from alternative consumption data", overall GDP growth is now seen higher, with Q3 coming in at +42% annualized (vs 35% previously / 24% consensus), and Q4 at +5% vs +4% previously. That said, GS's 2021 GDP forecasts are downgraded due to the "pulling forward of the recovery and the modest fiscal downgrade".