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Goldman: Broad-Based CPI Strength Met With Sharp Rl Yld Decline

US TSYS/TIPS

Goldman Sachs note that “April core CPI rose by the fastest pace since January and was two-tenths above consensus expectations. The report saw strength in not only reopening categories, but underlying core services and core goods prices as well. While the last few upside inflation surprises resulted in higher longer-dated real yields on the view that the Fed may need to deliver more tightening, this past week’s release produced the opposite effect - real yields fell sharply across the curve. The different market response likely reflects heightened concerns about decelerating growth (as seen in the downdraft in both equities and breakevens) and the Fed’s ability to continue tightening into a potential slowdown. However, we expect this decline in real yields to reverse. In our baseline economic view where recession is avoided and inflation begins to normalize, we see 5y5y real yields as having another 25-50bp of upside from current levels, to between 75-100bp in level terms, and 10y real yields at 60-70bp by year-end. In a high inflation scenario, we would expect the Fed would likely need to raise the policy rate above 4%, which would argue for even higher intermediate real yields than our baseline. We expect this drift higher in real yields to occur as we move through the year, and investors reduce their perceptions of near-term recession odds. Of course, if recession fears are indeed realized, real yields could end up materially lower, reflecting two-sided risks.”

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Goldman Sachs note that “April core CPI rose by the fastest pace since January and was two-tenths above consensus expectations. The report saw strength in not only reopening categories, but underlying core services and core goods prices as well. While the last few upside inflation surprises resulted in higher longer-dated real yields on the view that the Fed may need to deliver more tightening, this past week’s release produced the opposite effect - real yields fell sharply across the curve. The different market response likely reflects heightened concerns about decelerating growth (as seen in the downdraft in both equities and breakevens) and the Fed’s ability to continue tightening into a potential slowdown. However, we expect this decline in real yields to reverse. In our baseline economic view where recession is avoided and inflation begins to normalize, we see 5y5y real yields as having another 25-50bp of upside from current levels, to between 75-100bp in level terms, and 10y real yields at 60-70bp by year-end. In a high inflation scenario, we would expect the Fed would likely need to raise the policy rate above 4%, which would argue for even higher intermediate real yields than our baseline. We expect this drift higher in real yields to occur as we move through the year, and investors reduce their perceptions of near-term recession odds. Of course, if recession fears are indeed realized, real yields could end up materially lower, reflecting two-sided risks.”