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Goldman Sachs Expect 100bp Cut With Agreement on Ukraine Aid Now Reached

HUNGARY
  • Goldman Sachs say the decline in inflation was broad-based across most categories of the CPI basket, owing to helpful base effects and generally weak sequential momentum. Given the weakness of inflation dynamics, Goldman Sachs continue to view the HUF as the ‘binding constraint’ on the NBH's pace of rate reduction.
  • Arguably, the most recent bout of HUF weakness (following news reports that the EU was adopting a more assertive approach with Hungary over its obstruction of aid to Ukraine) prevented the NBH from accelerating its cutting cycle from 75bp to 100bp at the MPC last week, they note. However, now that an agreement on Ukraine aid has been reached, Goldman Sachs think the NBH will most likely speed up its cutting cycle to 100bp this month instead.
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