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Goldman Sachs Expect Headline CPI to Fall to +5.5% Y/Y

HUNGARY
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to fall to +5.5% y/y in December (BBG consensus: +5.9%; Prior: +7.9%) – largely due to the combination of weak momentum throughout most categories of the CPI basket, base effects in food inflation and sharply declining fuel prices. Data is released at 0730GMT/0830CET.
  • They note that inflationary pressures continue to be weak and the Forint – which in their view has been the ‘binding constraint’ on the NBH's pace of rate reduction – has re-appreciated against the Euro after weakening during the late summer and early autumn.
  • Going forward, Goldman Sachs expect the disinflation process to continue in the first half of 2024, albeit at a slower pace than earlier due to receding base effects. Assuming the HUF remains relatively stable, they continue to believe that the central bank will keep cutting its base rate by 75bp per meeting through Q1, bringing the policy rate to +8.50% in March.
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