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Goldman Sachs on CLP: Balance Of Risks Shifting Positive Again

CHILE
  • GS closed their last long CLP recommendation in mid-May, and since then CLP has underperformed on a mix of domestic and global considerations.
  • Globally, a sequentially slowing growth impulse from China and a setback in copper prices have made for an unhelpful backdrop
  • Locally, even apart from the aftermath of the constitutional referendum, continued noise around pension withdrawals has meant that political risk has remained at the top of investor radars.
  • The political risk premium is unlikely to entirely disappear, but with the central bank's "hawkish" 75bp hike and "hawkish" forward guidance, there is at least now the prospect of a carry re-build that can anchor the currency in the face of political noise.
  • The global backdrop may be shifting in a more helpful direction. Although spot data in China, including the recent PMI data, continue to be weak, with local coronavirus transmission appearing to have stabilized already the downside risks from this source may abate in coming months.
  • Following strong performance last week, and with their 3m forecast of 760 for USD/CLP in touching distance, GS are rolling forward their forecasts to 730, 700 and 680 in 3, 6 and 12m (from 760, 730 and 680 previously).
EM BulletHomepageGoldman Sachs Market NewsBulletEmerging Market News
EM BulletHomepageGoldman Sachs Market NewsBulletEmerging Market News

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