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Goldman Sachs On Singapore Budget

SINGAPORE
  • Goldman Sachs: "Singapore’s Ministry of Finance is scheduled to announce the FY24 budget on Friday, February 16. Pre-budget engagement by the government suggest that, similar to the previous year, the budget could focus on three main themes including creating sustainable economy with good quality jobs, social inclusivity (aiding new families, aging population and integrating vulnerable population to the economy) and building a more resilient nation by balancing short-term and long-term needs (e.g. use of reserves). For fiscal year 2023, given higher tax collections, we are revising up our budget balance forecast to broadly balanced from -0.5% of GDP previously. This means that the administration is running a cumulative deficit of ~0.8% of GDP since FY21.
  • Given the constitutional requirement to keep a balanced budget over its five-year term, growth gains expected this year along with rebounding global goods trade and tax rate hikes in the pipeline (GST, property tax, foreign-sourced disposable income, etc) become effective this year, we are revising up our forecast for the budget surplus for FY24 to 0.8% of GDP (from 0.2% of GDP previously). We do not expect significant additional revenue measures to be announced on February 16. We think the government can disburse an additional assurance package to alleviate cost of living concerns for vulnerable households, but as inflation slows, we think it will be smaller in magnitude. The government will likely continue emphasizing the needs to plan for the medium-term strategy such as green transition and expansion of healthcare services."
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