CANADA NOV BUDGET DEFICIT CAD8.2 BLN VS YEAR AGO CAD4.0 BLN

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Supports Slowing Rate Cuts

CANADA DELAYS IMPLEMENTING CAPITAL GAINS TAX HIKE TO JAN 2026

MNI BRIEF: US Dec Core PCE Inflation In Line With Expectations

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bowman Wants Inflation Progress Before Cuts

MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100 BPS TO 13.25%

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: DE, NL and FR On Monday

MNI: US DEC PERSONAL INCOME +0.4%; NOM PCE +0.7%

MNI:US Q4 EMPL COST INDEX 0.9% V Q3 0.8%

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BRAZIL: Goldman Sachs Says CPI Forecasts Key for Assessing Depth Of Hiking Cycle

BRAZIL
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Given the recent domestic and external macro-financial developments, Goldman Sachs expects the Copom to honour the guidance provided and hike the Selic by another 100bp to 13.25% on Wednesday. In the post-meeting policy statement, they will be paying particular attention to the inflation forecasts for end 2025 and Q3 2026 and the magnitude of the deviation from the 3.00% target. These forecasts will be key to calibrate the Selic rate path and depth of hiking cycle.
  • GS expects the statement to acknowledge the observed further deterioration of inflation expectations and possibly also the deterioration of the services inflation dynamics, but also emerging softer real activity signals. They expect the overall balance of risks for inflation to remain skewed/asymmetric to the upside.
  • Given heightened domestic and external uncertainty, the Copom will likely maintain the guidance for the March meeting, but may elect to be either silent (no guidance) for the May meeting, or state that the hiking cycle will extend beyond March, but that the magnitude of the rate hikes after then will be data dependent.
173 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Given the recent domestic and external macro-financial developments, Goldman Sachs expects the Copom to honour the guidance provided and hike the Selic by another 100bp to 13.25% on Wednesday. In the post-meeting policy statement, they will be paying particular attention to the inflation forecasts for end 2025 and Q3 2026 and the magnitude of the deviation from the 3.00% target. These forecasts will be key to calibrate the Selic rate path and depth of hiking cycle.
  • GS expects the statement to acknowledge the observed further deterioration of inflation expectations and possibly also the deterioration of the services inflation dynamics, but also emerging softer real activity signals. They expect the overall balance of risks for inflation to remain skewed/asymmetric to the upside.
  • Given heightened domestic and external uncertainty, the Copom will likely maintain the guidance for the March meeting, but may elect to be either silent (no guidance) for the May meeting, or state that the hiking cycle will extend beyond March, but that the magnitude of the rate hikes after then will be data dependent.