Trial now

A Little Steeper Overnight


Belly-Led Weakness On Monday


(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence


(Z1) Testing Bear Trigger


Goldman Sachs note that EUR/USD has held "in a $1.1700-$1.1950 range this month, and our best guess is that the currency will remain stuck around current levels over the short-term. On the one hand, the region has seen a setback in Covid control, with notably high infection growth in Spain and moderate outbreaks elsewhere, which could affect GDP growth expectations. In light of relatively long positioning in options (suggested by EUR/USD risk reversals), as well as a lack of near-term catalysts now that the Recovery Fund has been priced, we could envision a moderate near-term pullback in the cross. On the other hand, medium-term flows should remain supportive, and will likely prevent a bigger retracement. Mutual fund investors have begun to show a preference for non-US assets, and these flows could be substantial if continued due to long-standing Dollar overweights. Moreover, standard momentum-based strategies used by CTAs call for adding to Dollar shorts and Euro longs at current spot levels. After a sharp move higher in July, a period of range-bound trading for the Euro is perhaps not too surprising. Despite the recent pause we maintain our core constructive view on the currency (with a current target of $1.25)."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |