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Goldman Sachs, UniCredit Suggest NBP May Turn More Hawkish Post-Election

POLAND
  • Goldman Sachs expect the NBP reaction function to now turn more hawkish as Governor Glapinski's voting record had previously been more hawkish under a Civic Platform-led government, when he was a regular MPC member.
  • Meanwhile, UniCredit noted before the elections that there will be few implications for monetary policy. They said the incentive to continue rate cuts will remain in place if the opposition comes to power. This is because Glapinski would probably want to show that recent rate cuts have not been politically motivated and also because the economic environment is unlikely to change much with a different government.
  • Nevertheless, UniCredit suggest that under a KO-led opposition government scenario the NBP may turn more reactive to rising inflation pressures over the long term, blaming the KO-led government for creating an inflationary environment through a loose fiscal position and reversing VAT cuts and price caps.
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