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Good data - but won't change the narrative

UK DATA
  • Services drove the upside surprise to monthly GDP data - with IP and construction both lower than expected.
  • Within services, "information and communication" was the largest upside driver - with computer games and telecommunications in particular helping drive growth.
  • Consumer facing services grew 0.6% in November but remain 5.8% below pre-pandemic levels with other services 7.5% above pre-Covid levels.
  • The ONS notes that +0.1%M/M or December would give a flat Q/Q reading - while a zero print in December could either round to zero for the quarter or to a negative print.
  • Overall, this is a decent print but is unlikely to alter the narrative going into the February MPC meeting (although note that this will be included in the BOE's updated MPR forecasts).
  • Next week's labour market and inflation data remain far more important to monetary policy in the short-term.
  • EURGBP is little changed since the data was released, with GBPUSD a little lower.

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