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Goolsbee - Be Careful Assuming Supply Chain Benefits Have Stopped

FED
Paraphrasing Chicago Fed's Goolsbee ('25 voter) in a monetary policy discussion:
  • The thing that I want us to note with the supply chain and how the NY Fed’s GSCPI has returned to more neutral levels (although Regional Fed liaison programs also support it) .
  • There could be an argument that the supply chain is now fixed so whatever happened in 2023 is over so you shouldn’t expect anymore benefit in 20224.
  • Be a little careful with that argument because one of the things that we learnt is that team transitory (which is now team supply shock) got the timing wrong from failure to appreciate the persistence of inflation, I think, from spillovers from the supply chain having a bunch of steps in it.

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