Governing Party Continues To See Polling Numbers Slide

The first opinion poll from 2021 in Poland shows a continued slide in support for the governing conservative United Right coalition, with its lead down to 4% over the centre-right Civic Coalition (CO). The governing coalition, dominated be the Law and Justice party (PiS), holds onto a fragile majority in the Sejm (parliament) and inter-coalition rows in recent months have raised the prospect of a snap election should one of the smaller parties withdraw its support.

• United Right 33% (-2), Civic Coalition 29% (+4), The Left 12% (-1), Confederation 9% (=), Kukiz'15 4% (-1), Polish Coalition 4% (+1). Social Changes poll, 1,090 respondents, 1-5 Jan (Chgs w/25-28 Dec).
• The pollster also carried out a poll including the option of selecting the newly-formed centrist 'Poland 2050' movement. Poland 2050 is led by TV personality and unsuccessful 2020 presidential candidate Szymon Hołownia. When including Poland 2050 the results are as follows:
  • United Right 31% (-2%), Civic Coalition 24% (+5), Poland 2050 19% (-1), The Left 10% (-1), Confederation 7% (-1), Kukiz'15 4% (=), Polish Coalition 2% (-1). Social Changes poll, 1,090 respondents, 1-5 Jan (Chgs w/25-28 Dec).
• With Poland 2050 included the lead for the United Right over the Civic Coalition extends from four to seven %, however, the 31% of the vote share it is on if replicated in a snap election would leave it well short of a governing majority.